In the competition for global hegemony, the rivalry between the USA and China over artificial intelligence (AI) is not limited to technological innovation or economic growth. It is part of a geopolitical struggle in which AI, now a strategic tool, is redefining the way nations wage war, defend themselves and project their power. For years, both countries have been investing heavily in the development of artificial intelligence systems, aware that future conflicts will be decided as much on the battlefield as in processor circuits and machine learning networks.

In the United States, AI is already integrated into many strategic military systems, from intelligence to operational coordination. During the intervention in Syria, for example, US drones demonstrated the power of this technology: computer vision algorithms identified targets with unprecedented accuracy, reducing the risk of human error. These same algorithms analyzed satellite images in real time, anticipating enemy movements and offering a decisive strategic advantage.

For its part, China used drones in its border confrontations with India, deploying UAVs (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles) capable of monitoring mountainous areas inaccessible to man. These devices have not only been used for reconnaissance, but have also guided artillery strikes against Indian positions. A particularly striking innovation is the use of swarm drones, a field in which Beijing is investing heavily: these small devices, coordinated by algorithms, act together to overwhelm enemy defenses by their sheer numbers and speed.

The dizzying progress of artificial intelligence is transforming the world. By the end of the 2020s, new models will surpass the most qualified human experts. In this technological race, China has entered the fray with DeepSeek, an open-source AI that can be used without an Internet connection and is reputed to be less expensive than its American rivals. AI progress is following an exponential curve: experts agree that by the end of the 2020s, a “super artificial intelligence” will be capable of solving problems more efficiently than human beings. OpenAI, one of the pioneers and founder of ChatGPT, is about to launch its new “o3” model of generative transformer. The “o1” version was only released in September 2024 and scores 120 on an IQ test, meaning it is “smarter” than 9 out of 10 humans at solving a problem. Submitted to a “GPQA” exam (dedicated to American doctoral students in science), “o3” scores 88% correct. PhD students score 34% on average, and 81% when faced with questions relating to their specialty. There are enthusiasts, like Sam Altman (founder of OpenAI), and worriers, like Elon Musk, who is calling for regulation of the sector. In Silicon Valley, in the heart of California, these extraordinary advances promise to keep the United States at the forefront of innovation.

When a rising power meets with an established one, it inevitably leads to conflict. Is the Thucydides trap indeed playing out on the world stage, as the United States continues to guard its global technological lead – among other areas of dominance – against China’s ambitions?

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Read more on September 1, 2025.