On October 8, 2025, deadly clashes between the Pakistani army and Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) fighters in the border province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa left dozens dead. Islamabad accuses Kabul of harboring and supporting the insurgents, with India’s discreet backing. Kabul retorts that Pakistan violated its airspace by bombing border areas and even the capital. The Taliban government claims to have retaliated, killing 58 Pakistani soldiers, a figure disputed by Islamabad. This renewed tension is part of a longer-standing dispute over the Durand Line, drawn in 1893, which Afghanistan has never recognized as a legitimate border.
But the issue goes beyond a simple border dispute. In the background, a strategic realignment is taking shape in which India appears to want to play a pivotal role. By welcoming the Taliban foreign minister in October, Delhi signaled an unprecedented rapprochement with the Afghan regime, as it seeks to weaken Pakistan’s influence following tensions between India and Pakistan in the spring. This new Kabul-Delhi axis could open up opportunities for other powers, notably Israeli leaders, who see India’s growing strength as a lever for extending their influence towards Central Asia, in the face of Iran and the Sino-Russian axis.
In this context, the United States is reappearing on the Afghan chessboard. Donald Trump recently described the withdrawal from the Bagram base in 2021 as a “strategic mistake” and announced the US intention to return there. The current climate of tension, creating a need for “stabilization,” could legitimize this return. Bagram, the former epicenter of the U.S. military presence, is regaining major geopolitical value in the Sino-American competition.
Read more on January 1st, 2026.